通过企业风险管理解决黑天鹅和灰犀牛问题

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    通过企业风险管理解决黑天鹅和灰犀牛问题

    由  Nehal Shah 发布  - 07-24-2019 

    我们来谈谈灰犀牛和黑天鹅与风险管理的关系。我们知道犀牛是大而有角的动物,对我们的安全有潜在的危险。在风险管理世界,灰犀牛隐喻已知但被认为极不可能发生而常被忽视的危险事件。另一方面,黑天鹅在1697年相对较晚发现,象征未知或异常,并代表某些风险如何被忽视,因为过去没有什么能令人信服地指出其发生的可能性。

    为解决公司自身的“黑天鹅”和“灰犀牛”问题,安森美半导体的企业风险管理(ERM)部每年都会与跨职能的同事在公司以外的场地举行新兴风险情景规划会议,以评估被认为是新的、不明确的、不可预见或进展缓慢的特定风险情景。今年早些时候,安森美半导体的新兴风险情景规划会议被Gartner和NeuGroup评为最佳实践。对安森美半导体的一项案例研究Value Driver Scenario Workshops被载入Gartner网站和NeuGroup的出版物《iTreasurer》中,文章题为《Getting Ahead of Future Surprises》。

    新兴风险会议是企业风险管理计划框架的一部分,帮助我们超越最近期和较战术性的季度风险评估,而看真正全局和战略性的项目。通过举行新兴风险会议,企业风险管理小组致力克服障碍,通常可以防止新兴风险(如下图所示)不被常规考虑的障碍。

    每个新兴风险会议基本上没有底稿,让来自内部持份者可提出各种观点和考虑因素。但针对议题讨论的每种情景都考虑以下两点:

    • 安森美半导体价值动因:可定义为提高公司整体价值的业务运营的关键因素或观点,如技术和产品、客户、人才和声誉。
    • 领先指标:是向公司发出的具体信号,表明“远离”风险即将发生,需要采取行动来管理或降低风险。

    过去,企业风险管理小组计划就地缘政治和自动车辆等议题开展新兴风险会议。今年,一个跨职能的代表小组探讨了人工智能(AI)对道德和劳动力构成的发展和应用。微软的AI战略美国主管为会议作了开幕演讲,谈到了人和AI的交点。会上讨论了两种情景,重点关注AI的发展和应用对道德和我们劳动力构成的影响。

    无视或忽视黑天鹅或潜在新兴风险的自满和意愿可能是最大的风险。通过评估灰犀牛何时、以多快的速度而来以及它可能造成的潜在损害,安森美半导体的企业风险管理小组旨在创建有价值的对话,帮助公司应对新兴风险。

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